Primer on the New Hampshire Primary

By Edward Graham

Here’s some background on the Feb. 9 New Hampshire Primary and a compilation of media coverage of the event.

The Ground Game

How much time has each candidate spent in New Hampshire?

• Website lists each event—by date, time and location—held by candidates in New Hampshire, as well as a cumulative total of visits to the state and planned upcoming events.

The New Hampshire holds the first primary in the nation, following the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire state law requires that the state’s primary be the first, declaring that it should be held “7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election.”

This is the 100^th anniversary of the first New Hampshire primary, which was held on March 14, 1916.

Independent voters in New Hampshire may choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, while voters registered with a specific party may vote only in that party’s primary. This gives many state voters an incentive to remain as independent, even if they frequently vote for one party.

A poll from WBUR, Boston’s NPR station, noted that 44 percent of the state’s voters were registered as undeclared. Of this 44 percent of voters, the poll concluded that 44 percent would vote in the Republican primary, 35 percent in the Democratic primary and the remaining 21 percent were undecided.

“Some N.H. voters are flexible when it comes to ideology”
The Boston Globe, Jan. 25, 2016

• “Voters in the state are notoriously late deciders, and independents can switch between the Democratic and Republican contests, voting in whichever contest they find more compelling the day of the primary. With candidates presenting so many options this year, some voters say they are flirting with seemingly contradictory possibilities — say, choosing between Sanders, who promises to fight for state-sponsored health care for all and free college tuition, and Kasich, who vows to rein in federal spending and balance the budget.”

Traditionally, the state’s intimate size and retail-style campaigns have allowed lesser-known candidates to advance their campaigns by appealing directly to ordinary citizens. Those candidates who spend the most time in the state, making direct appeals to the voters in person, are often rewarded with a strong showing of voter support, which often brings much-needed momentum to their campaigns.

But this election cycle, the GOP candidate leading in polling, Donald Trump, has spent little time following the time-worn model, which has led some reporters to question New Hampshire’s traditional role in winnowing the field and allowing its voters to have an outsized role in the nomination process.

“Does the New Hampshire primary even matter anymore?”
The Boston Globe, Jan. 20, 2016

• “And yet, just that morning, a poll of New Hampshire Republicans showed the top two candidates in the state’s February 9 primary were New York businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, neither of whom found his way to the top the traditional way. Trump had rejected the idea of courting the New Hampshire’s political elite, of schmoozing with voters in cafes and living rooms, of spending week upon week answering questions in high school gymnasiums and stuffy town halls. Carson — preparing for a book tour — simply appeared uninterested. And now a poll seemed to say they were getting away with it.”

Although 2016 polling of the GOP primary field does not follow the traditional model of on-the-ground campaigns of previous years, many candidates are hedging their bets on New Hampshire as a make-or-break effort. A key component to an election night victory is turning out passionate voters and getting them to the polls.

“Who’s got the best ground game in New Hampshire? We may never know.”
The Washington Post, Jan. 11, 2016

• “The short answer is that late leads in early primary states are notoriously fickle. The way to preserve a lead is to figure out which voters are going to vote for you and then, on Election Day, get them to the polls. Trump’s base tends to be less-frequent voters, making that sort of work all the more important. That work is called ‘field,’ or ‘ground game.’”

“Kasich, Times endorsement in hand, marches on”
CNN, Jan. 30, 2016

• “Kasich has bet his candidacy on the small state of New Hampshire, spending more time here than any other candidate, according to New England Channel News’ candidate tracker. He left Iowa four days before the caucus there for a final 11-day swing leading up to New Hampshire’s primary.”
• “In New Hampshire, “undeclared” voters represent more than 4 percent of the state’s voters and can choose to vote in either party’s primary on Election Day, although many of them consistently lean to one party.”
• “A recent poll from WBUR shows around one third of undeclared voters have yet to decide on a party for the February 9 primary.”

This year, residents of Millsfield, New Hampshire, will be the first to cast their votes, with the polls opening at midnight. The town in the northeast corner of the state has a total population of 29 residents. It’s unknown how many of those are eligible to vote.

“Tiny Millsfield, N.H., Becomes a Big Deal in 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary”
The Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2015

“For 60 years, the nation’s first presidential primary votes have been cast at Dixville Notch, about 20 miles from the Canadian border. There, at midnight, news reporters would assemble to watch the town’s voters—there were just 27 as recently as 2000 — cast their ballots in the ornate Ballot Room at the Balsams Grand Resort Hotel.

But the Balsams ski resort closed in 2011. No one lives in the town full-time. That created an opening for a new community to be the symbolic home of the state’s first-in-the-nation voting.

Millsfield, adjacent to Dixville Notch, got official backing last year to take on the role when Gov. Maggie Hassan signed legislation allowing the town to open its polls at midnight. But the new status has also brought a host of challenges.”

How will the weather affect the primary?
“Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary: Here’s How Weather Could Affect Voter Turnout”
The Weather Channel, Jan. 30, 2016

“The Weather Channel polled 325 likely voters in Iowa and 392 in New Hampshire to find out what kinds of weather could influence the electorate.”

• “Among the most surprising data in the poll was that a higher percentage of Democrats in the two states said they’d vote no matter what weather conditions they had to endure. Generally, the study found Republicans are the more weather-resilient party.”

The forecasts as of Friday show snow falling Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning of the primary, with roughly 1-3 inches expected.

Additional links:

“Why New Hampshire’s primary gets to go first”
The Boston Globe, Jan. 21, 2016
https://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2016/01/21/why-new-hampshire-primary-gets-first/CMmp3ZFaqhtLH2L5avVdgJ/story.html — This looks at the evolution of the New Hampshire primary over the years.

“There’s nothing quite like the New Hampshire primary”
The Boston Globe, Jan. 24, 2016
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/01/23/primary/u8jfutF45Y9ctRVvtw95dI/story.html — A great synopsis of the New Hampshire primary over the years and looks at some of the most captivating moments from previous primaries.

“Everything you need to know about how the presidential primary works”
The Washington Post, May 12, 2015
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works/  Looks at the differences between caucuses and primaries and how Iowa and New Hampshire gained their statuses as the first states, respectively, in the primary process.

“Kasich’s ‘ignore Iowa’ strategy rarely works in N.H.
The Boston Globe,Jan. 26, 2016
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/01/26/john-kasich-ignore-iowa-strategy-rarely-works/gUc3lx7lGqFcH3YHjOmzVK/story.html

A look at how candidates such as John Kasich and Chris Christie who ignore the Iowa caucuses and go all-in on New Hampshire don’t always do well.

LATEST POLLS OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY (Updated Friday, Feb. 5, 2016)

 Republican polling data aggregate (N.H.): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

Democratic polling data aggregate (N.H.): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

 New Hampshire Republican Primary Polling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

Polls Feb. 2-4, 2016
Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll (survey of 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4 percentage points): http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/05/new-poll-shows-rubio-closing-trump/QpALGuCZ2gAivxLtHAaPAI/story.html
Donald Trump: 29 percent; Marco Rubio: 19 percent; John Kasich: 13 percent; Jeb Bush: 10 percent; Ted Cruz: 7 percent; Chris Christie: 5 percent; Ben Carson: 4 percent; Carly Fiorina: 4 percent.

WBUR/Mass INC(survey of 410 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.9 percentage points): http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/05/final-wbur-poll-new-hampshire

Donald Trump: 29 percent; Marco Rubio: 12 percent; Ted Cruz: 12 percent; John Kasich: 9 percent; Jeb Bush: 9 percent; Carly Fiorina: 8 percent; Chris Christie: 6 percent; Ben Carson: 4 percent.

UMass/News poll (survey of 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.8 percent); http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-5%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230845.pdf
Donald Trump: 34 percent; Marco Rubio: 15 percent; Ted Cruz: 14 percent; John Kasich: 8 percent; Jeb Bush: 8 percent; Chris Christie: 5 percent; Ben Carson: 4 percent; Carly Fiorina: 3 percent.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Polling;

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

Feb. 2-4, 2016

Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll (survey of 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4 percentage points): http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/05/new-poll-shows-rubio-closing-trump/QpALGuCZ2gAivxLtHAaPAI/story.html
Bernie Sanders: 50 percent; Hillary Clinton: 41 percent;

WBUR/Mass INC (survey of 393 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.9 percentage points); http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/05/final-wbur-poll-new-hampshire
Bernie Sanders: 54 percent; Hillary Clinton: 39 percent

UMass/News poll (survey of 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.8 percentage points): http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-5%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230845.pdf
Bernie Sanders: 55 percent; Hillary Clinton: 40 percent;

Local (and major) newspaper endorsements in the New Hampshire media market:

GOP PRIMARY
John Kasich
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/opinion/sunday/a-chance-to-reset-the-republican-race.html?_r=0

The Boston Globe: https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2016/01/25/republicans-should-vote-for-john-kasich-new-hampshire/alUwyPAaf0llfdbB0jwDmN/story.html

Concord Monitor: http://www.concordmonitor.com/opinion/editorials/20721839-95/editorial-john-kasich-for-the-republican-nomination

 Keene Sentinel: http://www.sentinelsource.com/opinion/editorial/we-endorse-john-kasich-for-the-republican-presidential-nomination/article_3cc968e9-6ebe-5b35-85a5-8525ff4c85da.html

The Portsmouth Herald: http://www.seacoastonline.com/article/20160115/NEWS/160119396

Nashua Telegraph: http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/opinion/editorials/1075968-465/our-choice-for-the-gop-nomination.html

Foster’s Daily Democrat: http://www.seacoastonline.com/article/20160115/NEWS/160119396

Chris Christie
New Hampshire Union Leader: http://www.unionleader.com/For-our-safety,-our-future:-Chris-Christie-for-President

Boston Herald: http://www.bostonherald.com/opinion/editorials/2016/01/editorial_endorsement_chris_christie_is_a_tested_leader_for_troubled

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Hillary Clinton
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/opinion/sunday/hillary-clinton-endorsement.html

The Boston Globe: https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2016/01/24/new-hampshire-should-hillary-clinton/4wMHbvMFAB5onZZnBC5FqL/story.html

Concord Monitor: http://www.concordmonitor.com/home/20636012-95/editorial-clinton-is-democrats-best-choice

Keene Sentinel: http://www.sentinelsource.com/opinion/editorial/we-endorse-hillary-clinton-for-the-democratic-nomination-for-president/article_0cb615a1-4582-53cd-8914-9ef4aee2ef9a.html

The Portsmouth Herald: http://www.seacoastonline.com/article/20160115/NEWS/160119397

Foster’s Daily Democrat: http://www.seacoastonline.com/article/20160115/NEWS/160119397

*Note that the candidates currently leading in polling of both the Republican and Democratic N.H. primary contests (Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, respectively) have received no local newspaper endorsements.

Full list of candidate endorsements by national newspapers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_United_States_presidential_primaries,_2016#Republicans

[Note that this is a Wikipedia aggregate total]

Analysis of newspaper endorsements:

“N.H. Newspaper Endorsements Trickle In. But is Anyone Reading?”
New Hampshire Public Radio,Jan. 25, 2016
http://nhpr.org/post/nh-newspaper-endorsements-trickle-anyone-reading

“Newspaper endorsements of candidates losing influence”
Southeast Missourian, Jan. 27, 2016
http://www.semissourian.com/story/2271264.html